Trump's tariffs spark economic uncertainty for Dunklin County farmers

WASHINGTON, D.C., - US Pres. Donald Trump's tariffs on products imported from Canada, Mexico and China could potentially spell trouble for the Dunklin County economy.

And Trump on Monday imposed a global 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports, which sent trade partners Canada, Mexico and China into a sort of tailspin, but pleased Blytheville's Nucor-Yamato executives.

So while that industry might realize advantages, not so much for the county's agricultural producers.

American Farm Bureau Federation Pres. Zippy Duvall recently expressed alarm about potential harm to farmers resulting from the order signed by Trump imposing stiff tariffs on the United States’ top three agricultural markets by value.

Duvall, a third-generation dairy farmer from Greene County, Georgia, noted an economic emergency was declared to put duties of 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, with limited exceptions, as well as 10% on all imports from China.

Canadian and Mexican governments both announced the countries would impose retaliatory measures, Duvall said.

“Farm Bureau members support the goals of security and ensuring fair trade with our North American neighbors and China," he said. "But, unfortunately, we know from experience that farmers and rural communities will bear the brunt of retaliation. Harmful effects of retaliation to farmers ripple through the rest of the rural economy."

Area producer and commodity trader Barry Bean agreed.

The President of Bean & Bean Cotton Co., Bean trades Missouri cotton with buyers from around the world and consults on a variety of commodity, risk management, and agriculture policy issues.

"A 30-day hold was announced on Mexico and Canada," Bean said. "So we'll see what comes out of that.

"As far as producers and commodities are concerned, once you introduce a 30-day hold, it's a fairly trivial matter," he added. "The imports that we buy from those three countries and the exports that we sell to them are all long-term deals. It's not like running down to the store to buy the three bananas you need for your protein shake tomorrow. You're talking about buying a year's supply at a time. So, we'll have to see how they shake out."

Tariffs for farmers equate to less than faithful futures for commodity traders, Bean said.

"Clearly, these tariffs introduce a substantial level of uncertainty into the market," Bean said. "That's one of the reasons we're seeing on the currency markets that the dollar has strengthened a little bit.

"The currency traders now think Trump's just playing games," Bean continued. "As in 'These are not serious tariffs. He's not going to hold them.' But that still does introduce a pretty substantial amount of uncertainty into things like commodity trades, or things like potash purchases."

Nearly 80% of Missouri's potash used in fertilizer is a Canadian import, both Duvall and Bean explained.

"That's obviously not one truckload at a time," Bean said. "When you've got a 30-day hold on potash, and you've got contracts, you're going to get it across the border as quick as you can.

"But you may be a little reluctant to make a contract for 60 or 90 or 120 days out," he continued. "Because you're not sure how things are going to go in the next 30 days."

Tariffs that increase fertilizer prices threaten to deliver another blow to the finances of farm families already grappling with inflation and high supply costs, Duvall said.

“Farm and ranch families answer the call to feed America’s families and the world," he explained. "And these tariffs and the promised retaliation will put further stress on their livelihoods.

"More than 20% of U.S. farm income comes from exports," the bureau's president said. "Which are dominated by these three markets."

In 2024, the U.S. exported more than $30Bn in agricultural products to Mexico, $29Bn to Canada, and $26Bn to China, Duvall observed.

Tariffs cause uncertainty for ag producers, and that creates a crimp in moving forward, Bean noted.

"I guess the most immediate effect is, this is the time of year when we do a lot of forward contracting," Bean explained. "And our buyers who are largely overseas and largely are either completely or partially based in China or Canada or Mexico, we've introduced a level of uncertainty so they've got to build that into the prices they offer when they make commitments.

"I'm primarily a cotton merchant," he continued. "One of the companies that I sell a lot of cotton to, they buy probably 20 or 30 percent of the cotton in Missouri, and they're based in China. When I talk to them about forward contracting next year's crop, they have to put an extra 100 points on a volatility premium. And they're talking about putting clauses into the contracts that if tariffs are introduced, there's a possibility that the new contracts that come out, that that would be deducted straight from the producer on our end. So that immediately goes into a discount on products that we sell."

And while Bean noted the Farm Bill is under negotiations at the moment, Duvall said "the uncertainty hits just as operating loans are being secured" for this year's operating season.

"As spring planting approaches, that leaves farmers in a tough spot," Duvall said. "We look forward to working with President Trump to position our farmers for success while also ensuring American strength and leadership on the international stage.”

Blytheville, Ark., steel manufacturer Nucor-Yamato Steel employs many Dunklin County residents.

Its Chief Executive Officer, Leon Topalian, said in a Tuesday statement that his firm "strongly commends the actions taken today by President Trump to reimpose tariffs" on all steel imports.

"America’s national security depends on a robust and healthy American steel industry," Topalian said. "Which continues to be harmed by massive global steel overcapacity and the resulting surge of illegally dumped and subsidized imports from around the world.

"Many of our trading partners have taken advantage of our open market for far too long," he continued. "And have intentionally circumvented our trade laws or allowed other bad actors to transship illegally dumped and subsidized steel.

"The President’s actions will help level the playing field for American steel producers."